A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
